Pakistan's World Cup semi-final qualification scenario after loss against South Africa

Pakistan has played six games and won only two of them and has four points

October 27, 2023
Pakistan lost to South Africa in Chennai - ICC

CHENNAI: With four consecutive defeats in ICC Cricket World Cup, Pakistan’s campaign in the tournament is hanging on result of other teams – mainly on matches involving Australia - and Babar Azam men would want Afghanistan or Bangladesh to upset Australians in their games.

Pakistan has played six games and won only two of them and has four points on the table. They’re now scheduled to play Bangladesh, New Zealand and England in matches to come.

They not only need to win these three remaining matches, but to do it convincingly and then also hope for results of other games to come in their favour.

The clearest path for Pakistan from here would be to see Australia losing three of their four games, which seems unlikely as two of the games are against weaker opponents like Afghanistan and Bangladesh. So, they would want more upsets in the tournament.

They would also want New Zealand to win three remaining matches with winning one against them.

If Australia avoids an upset against Bangladesh or Afghanistan but loses to New Zealand, then NRR could come into effect.

For Pakistan to qualify, following results can be helpful:

Match 27: New Zealand beats Australia

Match 28: Bangladesh beats Netherlands

Match 29: India beats England

Match 30: Sri Lanka beats Afghanistan

Match 31: Pakistan beats Bangladesh

Match 32: New Zealand beats South Africa

Match 33: India beats Sri Lanka

Match 34: Afghanistan beats Netherlands

Match 35: Pakistan beats New Zealand

Match 36: England beats Australia

Match 37: India beats South Africa

Match 38: Sri Lanka beats Bangladesh

Match 39: Australia beats Afghanistan

Match 40: England beats Netherlands

Match 41: New Zealand beats Sri Lanka

Match 42: South Africa beats Afghanistan

Match 43: Bangladesh beats Australia

Match 44: Pakistan beats England

Match 45: India beats Netherlands

If all the results go according to the above stated “wish” then India will finish with 18, New Zealand 14, South Africa will finish with 12 and Pakistan 10 points above Australia and Sri Lanka who will have 8 pts each. If Australia wins against Bangladesh in match 43, which is highly likely, then Pakistan and Australia will tie on 10 pts each.

The if and but scenario will be clearer for Pakistan by next mid-week and the scenarios and wishes for Pakistan will keep changing according to results in coming games.

Faizan Lakhani is Deputy Editor (Sports) at Geo News.